Since the first quarter of this year, steel prices have repeatedly hit record highs. The China Iron and Steel Association recently issued a report stating that due to the large and rapid increase in the early period, the transmission to downstream industries has become more difficult, and it is difficult for the steel price to continue to rise sharply in the later period. Small fluctuations should be the main reason.
According to the report, in March, the demand for downstream steel in the domestic market was strong, prices in the international market rose, exports also maintained growth, and market expectations were strengthened, pushing steel prices to continue to rise. According to the monitoring of China Steel Association, at the end of March, China steel price index was 136.28 points, an increase of 4.92 points from the end of February, an increase of 3.75%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.07 points, an increase of 37.37%. At the end of March, the prices of the eight major steel products monitored by the China Iron and Steel Association increased.
The report also pointed out that from January to March this year, the national crude steel output reached 271 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. There is a large gap between the country annual crude steel output reduction requirements and the balance of supply and demand is facing challenges. The prices of raw materials such as iron ore, scrap steel, and coal coke continue to remain high, which puts pressure on steel companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The global economy is facing uncertainties and steel exports are facing greater difficulties.
Since April, steel prices have risen first and then fell, generally continuing to fluctuate upward. According to statistics from China Iron and Steel Association, in early April, the daily crude steel output (same caliber) of key steel companies increased by 2.88% month-on-month, and it is estimated that the country crude steel output increased by 1.14% month-on-month. According to the analysis of the report, from the perspective of the supply side, with the "looking back" of steel capacity reduction, the reduction of crude steel output, and the development of environmental supervision, it is difficult for the crude steel output to increase significantly in the later period. From the demand side, due to the rapid and large increase in steel prices since March, downstream steel industries such as shipbuilding and home appliances cannot withstand the continued high steel prices, and it is difficult for steel prices to continue to rise sharply in the later period.
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